Lest we forget, the fact that nuclear war did not break out in 1962 was largely a matter of luck. But such a gambit could also go horribly wrong. Like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a new Taiwan Strait crisis might end up stabilizing the status quo - albeit after a few hair-raising days. But it is safe to assume that it would be extremely dangerous, because China believes that only brinkmanship can concentrate all the players’ minds. It is impossible to predict such a confrontation’s exact form or timing. in a game of chicken in the Taiwan Strait. This would not only undermine Xi’s chance of achieving his long-term goal of reunification, it could also invite accusations of weakness that would undermine his standing both within and outside China.Ĭhina is probably not planning to launch an immediate and deliberate attack on Taiwan. What they fail to recognize is that, viewed from Beijing, their support for Taiwan looks more like an attempt to humiliate China than anything else and a provocation.Ĭhina now fears that if Taiwan’s leaders and their Western supporters do not pay a price for their affronts, it will lose its grip on the situation. They appear to believe that only robust and vocal support, including high-level visits and military assistance, can avert a Chinese attack. The Ukraine war also seems to have heightened the sense among Western leaders that Taiwan is in grave and immediate danger. would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan (although the White House quickly walked back his statement). Marines openly trained with Taiwan’s military. Such challenges to China have continued under Biden. lifted restrictions on contacts between American officials and their Taiwanese counterparts subtly changed the formulation of its “one-China” policy, by placing more emphasis on American commitments to Taiwan and transferred advanced weapons systems to the island. has been gradually shifting its Taiwan policy. When Taiwan was ruled by the traditionally China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) party, China was able to pursue a gradual strategy of economic integration, diplomatic isolation, and military pressure - one that it believed would eventually make peaceful reunification Taiwan’s only option. Until relatively recently, China’s leaders viewed the situation in the Taiwan Strait as unsatisfactory but tolerable. The implication is that if they do not change course, China will have no choice but to escalate. Chinese authorities are signaling to Taiwanese leaders and their supporters in the West that their relations with one another and with China are on an unacceptable trajectory. The main reasons for China’s current saber-rattling over Taiwan are more immediate. Each of these processes would take at least a decade. It might even carry existential risks for the Communist Party regime, the survival of which would be jeopardized by a failed military campaign.įor an invasion of Taiwan to have a good chance of succeeding, China would need first to insulate its economy from Western sanctions and acquire military capabilities that can credibly deter an American intervention. Although reunification is indeed one of his long-term objectives (it would be a crowning achievement for both him and the Communist Party of China more broadly), any attempt to achieve it by force would be extremely costly. Even if she had decided to skip Taipei on her tour of Asia, China’s bellicosity toward Taiwan would have continued to intensify, possibly triggering another Taiwan Strait crisis in the near future.Ĭontrary to the prevailing narrative, this is not primarily because Xi is committed to reunifying Taiwan during his rule. The specter of military confrontation looms large.īut Pelosi is hardly responsible for today’s heightened tensions over the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told President Biden that “those who play with fire will perish by it.” And now, China has just announced a major military exercise with live-fire drills starting Thursday.
The Chinese foreign ministry has warned of “serious consequences” as a result of Pelosi’s visit to the island. Chinese warplanes have brushed up against the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan has incited a predictably strong response from China.
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